Saturday, May 24, 2014

Percentages

It needs to be pointed out, and has been, that the percentages that the Lambeth Council website gives for each candidate are percentages of the total votes cast but as each voter has three votes it is not a measure of how many individuals support each party. This method underestimates the number supporting parties which put up only one candidate (in our words, us, TUSC and UKIP), but it is unclear how this could be worked out. Anyway, TUSC, UKIP and us will have more support than the Lambeth website figures suggest, perhaps twice as much.

This means that UKIP has the support of about 5% of those who bothered to vote in the two wards they stood in (Ferndale and Clapham Town). Not much compared with elsewhere. Commentators have been noting that UKIP is not doing so well in London. In fact, when you look at the composition of the population in London, especially central London, you wonder why UKIP thinks it has any chance in the inner London boroughs. Here for instance are the 2011 census statistics for Ferndale ward:

38.7% White British
20.9% Other White
10.8% Black African
9.9% Black caribbean
5.0% Black other

Of course these are unscientific categories and measure only what people classify themselves as when given a limited number of choices and told they must choose one, but, given that most "Other White" will be EU migrants, UKIP's on to a hiding in places like this, just as their parent group, the Tories, have been.

No comments: